Since our last Newsletter, there have been many developments in the politics surrounding the ratification of the Kyoto protocol. This agreement was almost consummated at the COP6 meeting at The Hague last November. Our negotiators thought an agreement had been reached (with ag soil sinks included) until they reached the airport to return to Canada. They were disappointed to discover that the E.U. had backed away. Since then the U.S. Presidency has been resolved in the courts. The new President George W. Bush has changed his position several times both during and after the election campaign. During the election campaign, Bush made a point of promoting "green themes", including climate change. This was probably prudent as 75% of Americans consider global warming to be a "very serious" or "fairly serious" problem. (TIME/CNN poll).
On March 28 he announced publicly that the U.S. was withdrawing from the Kyoto protocol which resulted in International condemnation. On May 16, he released the National Energy Policy which promoted the increase of the supply of fossil fuels, the increase of coal consumption and the enhancement of nuclear power generation. This produced a stir both domestically and internationally. Since then there has been another reversal of policy.
The White House, under George W. Bush, requested the U.S. Academy of Science to review the science surrounding climate change. Some of the questions in this request included: " Are greenhouse gases creating climate change?", "Is climate change occurring?", " If so how?", " What will be the consequences of this change?".
The U.S. Academy of Science's report left little doubt that the problem is real and that it would not be prudent for the U.S. to ignore this issue.
Another factor at work here is the fact that the Senate has now changed from Republican to Democratic control.
In Bush's speech before leaving for Europe on June 11, he states," I am today committing the United States of America to work within the United Nations framework and elsewhere to develop with our friends and allies and nations throughout the world, an effective and science-based response to the issue of global warming". The U.S. is also retracting some sections of their energy policy paper.
Prime Minister Chretien states that Canada will pursue its Kyoto protocol goals. It is unlikely that Canada will ratify it in 2002 unless several conditions are met first. The dramatic evidence of climate change in the Canadian Arctic will probably influence our country's commitment to the issue.
There is a flurry of activity surrounding the international negotiations on Kyoto. The COP president has called for a high level meeting June 27-28. The different negotiating alliances are getting together to make plans. The objective of this meeting is to arbitrate differences of opinion prior to the formal resumption of COP 6 on July 16-27.
It will be interesting to see what the outcome of this will be. I suspect that an agreement of some sort will emerge. Keep watching for new developments.