Agriculture Trends in the New Millenium

By Doug McKell,

Executive Manager

Somebody asked me the other day, "What crop should I grow this year?" I gave my standard answer for that question, "I dunno, what do you think?" This pretty well sums up the feeling of most Sask. farmers these days as we face one of the most puzzling outlooks for agriculture in decades. Attitudes are quite pessimistic. We keep being informed that someday the world will be short of food, which would suggest higher crop returns. This would seem to be a paradox as right now prices are low due to an apparent oversupply. Is this a short-term trend? It's not just our attitudes that are pessimistic. In the northern states it's even worse I was told by a senior machinery manufacturer executive. This might explain the low turnout of American farmers to the Man-Dak workshop held at the end of January. Organizers of that workshop were left scratching their heads wondering why there were so few Yanks. After all, why would a farmer pass up the chance to get some top-notch information when it only costs you forty cents on the dollar? Is there a trend developing here? How does this affect our conference planning?

No doubt there are going to be some tough times to get through in the next year or so. But what should we look forward to down the road for the next five years? What about ten years down the road? Are there any trends we should watch that will give us any indication as to how to manage our farms after the year 2000?

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that we, as farmers, need to consider some possible long-term trends before we develop our management plan. If we had looked at the early zero-till experience of the late seventies to make our decision about whether or not to adopt the practice, we would still be using the discers. However, the trend to lower priced glyphosate, better seeders and more weed control options materialized and zero-till now doesn't look as it did twenty years ago. Who would have thought in the seventies that someday wheat would be considered as a "filler" crop between oilseed and pulse crop rotations. If twenty years ago you suggested wheat was not going to last as king and proposed to grow crops like coriander or hemp, you would have probably been branded as the village idiot and thrown out of every lodge of which you were a member.

So maybe we ought to start thinking about some trends that have developed or are developing that may help us in our long-term plans. With that in mind, here are my suggestions for some long term trends and remember, you didn't pay me for this advice so don't come looking for me if these trends never come true!

1. Prices for crops will improve slowly but remain subject to quick drops due to supply pressures. The EEC will continue, for the next couple of years anyway, to subsidize their farmers. Until this practice is stopped through trade sanction pressures, there will be oversupplies of grain crops, especially in years when one of the major producers has good growing conditions. Compounding this situation is the US tendency to compete in the subsidy war. The only strategy here is to be willing to follow the markets closely and be ready to jump in and out of niche markets.
2. Machinery companies, grain handling companies and crop input companies will continue to merge until a very few hands control these businesses. This will mean the end of small farm business and independent farm supply outlets. Unless an oligopoly situation develops (this is where our governments probably would step in as they did with the banks. Oligopoly is one step below monopoly, which is bad news for everyone except the monopoly) there should still be enough competition to keep prices from getting excessive. We will, however, face longer distances for service and less chance for local price competition. Advantages will accrue to the farmers located closer to service centers and grain terminals on mainlines. There should be no danger of anyone controlling the food supply unless big business integrates down to owning the farmland. I can't see this happening. Who would want to buy farmland when there are countless landowners now willing to provide product at minimal or negative margins?
3. Transgenic crops will continue to be developed and eventually will form the basis of agriculture. We think of transgenic crops now as a strategy for weed control. In the future, crops will be developed for resistance to disease, quality traits or to fit into specific market niches. Eventually the Europeans, Japanese and other foreign markets will accept this technology and transgenic crops will become as common place as hybrid corn or soybeans. More advantages exist here than disadvantages.
4. Global warming trends will cause the weather to be variable and unpredictable. Periodic production problems due to drought will affect those farming in the center of the Palliser Triangle. Those who have adopted low soil disturbance practices will fare better than conventional tillage operators as they will be better able to retain and make use of soil moisture.
5. For those who seek it, crop production information will be offered in greater volume, come faster and, be more tailored to individual needs. Crop and soil analysis will become more advanced with technology such as; yield monitors, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), protein monitors, satellite imagery, infra-red photography and remote sensing. Computer technology will soon allow us to tap into this information on the farm.
6. Sequestered soil carbon will become another crop for prairie farmers. Governments in the developed nations of the world are going to be under the gun to meet their global warming Green House Gas emissions targets. The concept of offsetting CO ₂ emissions by storing carbon in the soil is starting to be taken seriously by federal policy makers. Farmers practicing direct seeding will benefit from this trend through either: direct cash payments, industry support for conservation organizations or, tax credits if a carbon tax becomes a reality.

There will be other trends coming down the road at us but we probably can't even imagine them right now. Who in the seventies could have predicted GPS systems for farms?

The best advice one can offer is that times and situations will change. It is not as significant that we accept change but that we recognize change is occurring and adjust our strategies and attitudes to fit the trends.

One final trend. The Roughriders will become the strongest team in the CFL. Unfortunately the rest of the league will, by this time, go the way of the dodo and Taylor Field will be taken over by Great Plains auctioneers. By then I hope I'm retired and living on some tropical island with good fishing and great beaches.