Another crop has been harvested and in a few short months we will be focusing our efforts on the 1996 growing season. In northwestern Saskatchewan, there are many farmers who will want to forget 1995. The 1995 growing season was one of the driest on record and personally saw some of the worst crops in 20 years. In the agriculture business there is always something to learn and this year was no exception. The most important management tool in 1995 was "MOISTURE MANAGEMENT". Those who wasted moisture early in the season paid dearly. Those who practiced zero tillage were surprised with the yields of some crops.
In this issue, I promised to continue my discussion comparing the economics of canola production on stubble vs. summerfallow. I also promised to share the results from our farm for the comparison. I will look at the costs between the two systems as accurately as possible. I am not an economist, so please don't throw the baby out with the bathwater if you don't agree with my numbers.
We presently farm as a family unit that has five family members with about as many ideas of what the best rotation is. We run a minimum till and a zero till system and are in the process of trying to pick the best one. All of my land base is zero tilled and in my view it is the way to go in the dark brown soil zone. Moisture is always the limiting factor and this year it certainly limited yield across the region. Summerfallow canola this year looked much better on our farm throughout the growing season but at the end of the day the yield was not substantially better. I feel that during years of reasonable commodity prices summerfallow is not as profitable as most have come to believe.
|
95 Precipitation
|
|
| April | 0 mm |
| May | 20 mm |
| June | 25 mm |
| July | 47 mm |
| August | 50 mm (helped late crops) |
|
Zero Till Costs
|
||||||
| Direct Cash Operating Costs | Wheat | Canola | Wheat | Peas | Wheat | Canola |
| Machinery operating and Depreciation | ||||||
| Pre Seeding Burnoff | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Air Drill Seeding | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| In Crop Spray | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||
| Pre Harvest Roundup Spray | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.50 | ||
| Swathing | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Combining | 9.25 | 9.25 | 9.25 | 11.00 | 9.25 | 9.25 |
| Fall Spray or Spread Gran. Herb. | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 | ||
| Sub Total | 30.15 | 23.05 | 30.15 | 26.90 | 30.15 | 23.05 |
| Inputs | ||||||
| Chemicals - Roundup @ ..5-.75 L ac. | 4.50 | 6.75 | 4.50 | 6.75 | 4.50 | 6.75 |
| broadleaf in-crop | 4.50 | 13.20 | 4.50 | 10.00 | 4.50 | 13.20 |
| grassy weeds in-crop and (spot spray canola) | 12.00 | (1.50) | 12.00 | 15.00 | 12.00 | (1.50) |
| Roundup pre- harvest @ 1L every 2 yrs | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Fertilizer - Nitrogen @ .30 lb. | 12.00 | 21.00 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 21.00 | |
| - Phosphate @ .34 lb. | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| - inoculant | 2.60 | |||||
| Crop Insurance | 1.26 | 3.43 | 1.26 | 2.21 | 1.26 | 3.43 |
| Hail Insurance | 2.21 | 4.96 | 2.21 | 6.62 | 2.21 | 4.96 |
| Sub Total | 46.06 | 60.44 | 46.06 | 52.78 | 46.06 | 60.44 |
| Total Costs | 76.21 | 83.49 | 76.21 | 79.68 | 76.21 | 83.49 |
|
Minimum Till Costs - No Field Pea Production
|
||||||
| Direct Cash Operating Costs | SMF | Canola | Wheat | Wheat | SMF | Canola |
| Machinery Operating and Depreciation | ||||||
| Pre Seeding Band Fertilizer | 5.21 | 5.21 | ||||
| Pre Seeding Harrow Pack | 2.60 | 2.60 | ||||
| Pre Seed Cultivate and Pack 2 x 4.30 | 8.60 | 8.60 | ||||
| Post Seed Harrow and Pack | 2.60 | 2.60 | ||||
| Seed - Airseeder with Sweeps | 5.21 | 5.21 | ||||
| Seed - Hoe Drill (Canola) | 7.00 | 7.00 | ||||
| Fall Spread Herbicides | 1.75 | |||||
| In Crop Spray | 2.00 | 2.00 | ||||
| Summerfallow and Fall Spray | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 4.00 | ||
| Cultivate Summerfallow - 4 x $3.90 ac. | 15.60 | 15.60 | ||||
| Swathing | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | ||
| Combining | 9.25 | 9.25 | 9.25 | 9.25 | ||
| Sub Total | 19.60 | 29.85 | 35.62 | 33.87 | 19.60 | 29.85 |
| Inputs | ||||||
| Chemicals - roundup @ 1 L/ac. | 8.70 | 8.70 | ||||
| - in crop broadleaf | 4.50 | 2.50 | ||||
| - in crop grassy | 15.50 | 12.00 | 15.50 | |||
| - SMF (spots) thistle control | 1.50 | 1.50 | ||||
| - SMF fall winter annuals | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Fertilizer - Nitrogen @ .30 lb. | 6.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.00 | ||
| - Phosphate @ .34 lb. | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | ||
| Crop Insurance | 4.50 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 4.50 | ||
| Hail Insurance | 4.96 | 2.21 | 2.21 | 4.96 | ||
| Sub Total | 11.70 | 37.56 | 31.37 | 41.37 | 11.70 | 37.56 |
| Total Costs | 31.30 | 67.41 | 66.99 | 75.24 | 31.30 | 67.41 |
|
Yield and Gross Returns - Five Year Average
|
||||||
| Ave Yield | Our 95 Yield | Ave. Prices | 95 Prices | Ave. Return | 95 Return | |
| Wheat - ZT | 36 | 27 | $ 3.50 | $ 5.50 | $126.00 | $148.50 |
| Wheat - MT | 36 | 25 | " | " | 126.00 | 137.50 |
| Wheat - Conv. | 20 (area) | " | " | 110.00 | ||
| Peas - ZT | 32 | 28 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 160.00 | 154.00 |
| Peas - MT | 32 | 15 | " | " | 160.00 | 82.50 |
| Peas - Conv. | 10 (area) | " | " | 50.00 | ||
| Canola - ZT | 22 | 26 | 6.50 | 8.00 | 143.00 | 208.00 |
| Canola - MT | 20 | 17 (area) | " | " | 130.00 | 136.00 |
| Canola - Conv. SMF | 29 | 31 | " | " | 188.50 | 248.00 |
Summary of Net Returns
|
Zero Tillage
|
|||||
| Crop Rotation | Ave. Return | 95 Return | Costs | Ave. Net | 95 Net |
| Wheat - ZT | 126.00 | 148.50 | 76.21 | 49.79 | 72.29 |
| Canola - ZT | 143.00 | 208.00 | 83.49 | 59.51 | 124.51 |
| Wheat - ZT | 126.00 | 148.50 | 76.21 | 49.79 | 72.29 |
| Peas - ZT | 160.00 | 154.00 | 79.68 | 80.32 | 74.32 |
| Wheat - ZT | 126.00 | 148.50 | 76.21 | 49.79 | 72.29 |
| Canola - ZT | 143.00 | 208.00 | 83.49 | 59.51 | 124.51 |
| Six Year Average Net Returns | 58.11 | 90.03 | |||
|
Minimum Tillage
|
|||||
| SMF - MT | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.30 | ( 31.30 ) | ( 31.30 ) |
| Canola - SMF | 188.50 | 248.00 | 67.41 | 121.09 | 180.59 |
| Wheat - MT | 126.00 | 137.50 | 66.99 | 59.01 | 70.51 |
| Wheat - MT | 126.00 | 137.50 | 75.24 | 50.76 | 62.26 |
| SMF - MT | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31.30 | (31.30 ) | ( 31.30 ) |
| Canola - SMF | 188.50 | 248.00 | 67.41 | 121.09 | 180.59 |
| Six Year Average Net Returns | 48.22 | 71.89 | |||
The numbers that I have put together can be a starting point to consider looking at your own farms present costs and returns. I have not included any fixed costs or costs to convert to a new equipment base so you will have to consider these costs into your scenario. The cost of soil degradation on summerfallow has not been taken into consideration . The road to improving soil quality is sometimes longer than we would like but I can assure you that it will not take many years to see improvements in soil tilth. The challenges in zero till are many but after only a few years I find that most weed control problems can be overcome. The technology now available for zero till farming has greatly improved the chances of returning profits to your operation. Find a successful zero tiller in your area and talk with him as I am sure he will share his experience with you.
I now feel more confident that summerfallow in the rotation is not as profitable as a diverse rotation that includes legumes. Stubble canola is a challenge but with proper seed placement and fertility along with good weed control and trash management you can grow respectable crops even in the dry years that we have experienced. Moisture is a valuable resource and every effort must be made to collect and conserve every drop in order to have a chance of succeeding in stubble canola.
Take the time this winter to attend a conference in your area discussing alternative farming systems since this is the best way to start the learning process. Also try to attend a direct seeding field day or a neighbor's farm as this will also help you sort through the many alternatives. Thank-you for your time and I hope these articles have helped you.