The modern agricultural system on the prairies is complex, linking a land-based resource with consumers, through processors, and retailers. This system consists of: (1) farms (and their associated characteristics such as size, tenure, investment, and cropping strategy), (2) a supply and services sector (including providers of pesticides, fertilizers, credit, and machinery), (3) processors, distributors, and transportation agents, and (4) government participants (regulatory agencies, R&D functions, trade and export matters). This system provides the basis for considerable employment and investment in the regional and national economies. Economic success is linked to the ability of both farms and many other institutions in the system to adapt to changing conditions. Climatic variability and change will have a significant economic impact on the province, and the agricultural system must be prepared to adopt more resilient practices and policies.
The farming practices that have evolved are in part a response to the variability in the regional climate. Crops and cropping practices are adopted based on the ability to secure a functional yield in most years. The sustainability of agriculture is based on the ability to maintain a viable operation in years when climatic conditions result in poor or non-existent harvests.
Much of the southern plains are semi-arid area, and are particularly sensitive to climate variability and longer-term change. Forecast climate warming, due to the changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, will likely result in substantial shifts in Alberta's average climate, and in the natural climatic variation. Climate warming scenarios predict the average annual global temperature will rise by up to 5°C, and that the extremes of some climate variables, most notably temperature and precipitation, will increase. Both of these changes will have a major impact on the provincial agriculture industry.
The potential for increased severity and frequency of drought poses a threat to the viability of production in the region, and hence to the existing agricultural system. There is also concern that soil degradation and erosion may increase because of reduced soil moisture. Without adaptation, these changes will further reduce the viability of most prairie farms. Irrigated areas will find increased demands for water from established parcels and new areas suffering severe drought. These increased demands may come at a time when river water, the principal source of irrigation water, may be declining due to a warming climate. The source of most of the river water supplies on the prairies is winter snow. Warming will result in much lower snow accumulation on the plains, affecting local spring runoff and soil water supplies. Declining snow accumulations in the alpine regions of Alberta could have a devastating impact on prairie water supplies.
Problems with crop disease and pests are also expected to increase. A warmer climate would allow diseases and pests that were previously constrained to lower latitudes, to move northward. Further, longer growing seasons could give pests more time to multiply, creating more expansive infestations of the endemic pests. Other pest populations, whose occasional and short-lived outbreaks are limited by the impact of weather on particular aspects of survival, may be released from these constraints.
The agricultural sector is currently in a tenuous position. Its viability is threatened by a number of issues: drought, contamination of soil and water, soil degradation, decreasing effectiveness of pest control methods, and health risks from agri-chemicals. Agricultural markets are becoming more competitive, and profit margins are declining. Uncertain policy environments, including international trade and subsidy issues and disaster relief programs, have decreased agricultural viability, and are rapidly increasing agriculture vulnerability to climatic variation. The five major droughts in the prairie region since the 1980s illustrate the vulnerability of the farm economy to climatic variability and change. Reduced crop yields, soil erosion, and water shortages during these years are reminders of the relationship between the natural environment and social and economic conditions.
The vulnerability of the prairie agricultural sector to current climatic variability, and to future shifts in both climate averages and variation is substantial. The research undertaken as a result of the Nat Christie Climate and Agriculture Research Program strengthened the understanding of the relationship between climate and agriculture on the plains; and highlighted the industry vulnerabilities. This will help improve strategic planning for the sustainability of the province's agricultural system.
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